Text analysis – 2007 predictions

Manafu wrote a post here about the Romanian online advertising market in 2007. I’ll try to blog on every answer in the same order he presented it in the original post:

Rachad El Jisr
BMG Publisher, Founder iMedia:
– “Around 10 million euro. To be on the safe side: 8 million euro”
Comment: Rachad El Jisr is able to gather valid data from the market. He first says 10 million and this is what the briefings at iMedia show – because he is not 100% involved online, he preferred to stay on “the safe side” and say 8 million. The figure comes also from the plans/talks they have with the agencies.
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Orlando Nicoara
General Manager, MPI:
– “somewhere between 6 and 10 mil, as we speak the market is not very “clear”, we’re waiting for stronger signals” (original: “undeva intre 6 si 10 mil, deocamdata e cam “ceata” pe piata, asteptam sa se mai ridice”)
Comment: after Orlando quit his job at Netbridge he obviously started to lose his direct connection with the advertising market. Using phrases like “not clear” or ” waiting for stronger signals” shows his own insecurity on the matter. His answer “between 6-10” also shows uncertainty on this field that he used to control. This time of the year, Orlando is not oriented towards selling the online campaigns but to develop new websites for MPI. Also, there is no important direct feedback from the agencies.
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Calin Fusu
Neogen General Manager:
– “I’ll say 7 million, 4 remain to the intermediaries :)” – (original – “incerc un 7 milioane, din care 4 raman la intermediari :)”)
Comment: Calin betrays the fact that he is a fan for the CPC campaigns. His tone confirms that he is both a “rebel” on the local online market and not a big lover of the online agencies and brokers. When he says “4 million remain to the intermediaries” he refers to the fact that around 30% is often kept by the online broker and around 30% by the agency “selling” to the online broker 🙂 – Calin doesn’t like these type of sales and he has reasons as he is more like a publisher. The figures can’t be very precise as Calin has no direct contact with the agencies.
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Radu Ionescu
Managing Partner, Kinecto
-“I’m in with 10-11 mil” (original: “baga-ma si pe mine cu 10-11 mil”)
Comment: Radu Ionescu is connected to some people who buy online advertising and he had the chance to find some inside budget plans for 2007. We can also notice that he is very often optimistic – as he is not involved directly in the key areas of the industry nor has direct contact with the agencies, we cannot value this information.
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Doru Panaitescu
New Media Manager, Initiative Romania
– “8,5, 9 milioane euro net”
Comment: Doru Panaitescu recently left ARBOmedia and these were the last figures he had from the inside. This interview came quite unexpected for Doru and he mentioned the 8,5 figure (as he remembered the last inside predictions) and after that probably said 9 because of his experience in selling. Doru is also an optimistic person and the figures reflect this but he is not anymore connected with the agencies. He’ll be a very interesting character to look after as he still has some connections in ARBO that will help in his activities later this year.
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Mirela Ciucur
Chief Internet Evangelist, Vodanet
– “from our estimations, based on what was performed last year and what do we have till now, we anticipate kinda 7-8 million EUR) (original: “Din estimarile noastre, bazate pe ce s-a performat anul trecut si ce informatii avem pana la data aceasta din piata, anticipam cam 7-8
milioane EUR.”)
Comment: She had an elaborate and complex answer masking the fact that she is not a technical person and more PR oriented. The number is artificial and presented in a politically correct way – due to the recent movements at Vodanet (Boom) I estimate that only a few people there that can access the figures and predict budgets and I’m sorry to say that Mirela is not one of them althoug Vodanet still has some connections in the agencies.
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Calin Rotarus
Sales Director, ARBOmedia
– “10 mega”
Comment: Calin seems very confident in his answer (he used “mega”) and probably has serious reasons to be so. His first predictions this year were around 8,5 and as I met him I asked him why is the difference. He answered me that ARBOmedia had a meeting with the agencies a few weeks ago and they had to recalculate the initial numbers in order to make a new prediction. Although Calin is also very optimistic (his nature as a sales manager) ARBOmedia seems to be the only player that can provide a credible prediction.
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Razvan Varabiescu
General Manager Media Direction
“9 milioane:)”
Comment: This is the prediction of one of the most calibrated Buying Director in Romania. He is connected to the pulse in the agencies and has direct access to the budgets but tends to be discreet with the figures. When he says “9 million” and smiles, we probably can expect that he means 20-30% more.

This is just a text analysis made very late in the night after a long day so if you feel the need to comment, please do so!